HFIP Annual Review Meeting | November 2018
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HFIP Annual Review Meeting | November 2018
November 5-7, 2018 | Miami, FL
Overall Objectives
The new HFIP Strategic Plan detailing the specific research, development, and technology transfer activities necessary to sustain HFIP in response to Section 104 of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act was approved by NOAA and awaits Congressional approval. The major goals of the act are planned to be addressed through the development of a multi-scale, multi-model system called Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). The HAFS is NOAA's next-generation multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclones within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). Central to the development of HAFS will be the FV3 dynamical core with embedded moving nest capable of tracking the inner core region of the hurricane at 1-2 km resolution.
The primary objective of this meeting will be to discuss the current state of operational hurricane capabilities and challenges, transition to the UFS-based FV3 system consistent with SIP with the development of HAFS, physics and DA advancements, set out NHC priorities, and build storm surge strategy. The results, accomplishments, and lessons learned from the 2018 hurricane season will be discussed allowing the development of a multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance.
Agenda Outline
Day 1 (Nov 5 Invitation Only): Developer's workshop for transitioning HWRF to the UFS-based FV3 system
Day 2 (Nov 6): Results, challenges, and lessons learned for FY18
Day 3 (Nov 7): Development Plans and Science Priorities for 2019 and beyond
- HAFS developments (out-brief from focused workshop)
- Physics and DA advancements
- NHC priorities
- Socio-economic WG plans
- Storm surge strategy
Day 1 | 5 Nov 2018
- Welcome remarks and Charge for the day (Marks)
- State of FV3 CAM developments (Chair: Gopal)
- Updates from EMC (Mehra)
- Updates from GFDL (Harris)
- Updates from HRD (Zhang)
- Updates from ESRL/NSSL (Alexander/Wicker)
- Updates from OU CAPS (Xue)
- FMS Overview and Nest Support (Liang)
- HAFS task list
Day 2 | 6 Nov 2018
- Results from 2018 – (Chair: DeMaria)
- FY18 NHC Verification (Cangialosi)
- NHC's forecast challenges in 2018 – Florence/Lane (Brennan/Blake)
- NHC's view on developmental priorities (Brennan/Blake)
- 2018 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Priorities (Shieh)
- Open Discussion on Best Practices and lessons learned from 2018
- Operational Modeling Session- Stream 1 (Chair: DeMaria)
- Results from Jet: Real-time Reservations - Stream 2 (Chair: Tallapragada)
- HWRF driven by FV3GFS (Thomas)
- Basin-scale HWRF (Alaka)
- 3-km nested hfvGFS (Hazelton)
- Global FV3 results (Marchok)
- HWRF Ensemble (Zhang)
- HMON Ensemble (W. Wang)
- FV3GFS, C768 with DA cycle (Grell)
- Analog Ensemble (Lewis)
- HFIP Supported Research Reports - (Chair: Gopal)
- Data Assimilation efforts (X. Wang)
- Physics developments (P. Zhu)
- DTC hurricane research activities (Newman/Kalina)
- Post-Processing and Verification Team (Penny, Zelinsky)
- Ensemble Products Tiger Team (Torn)
- HFIP Metrics (Franklin, Brennan, DeMaria)
- Summary and Wrap up from Day 2
Day 3 | 7 Nov 2018
- Description of Goals and Status of HFIP Strategic Plan (Marks)
- Next Phase of HFIP – Realignment of base program strategy (Toepfer)
- Plans for Jet (HPC) and Research to Operations (Tallapragada)
- Hurricane Supplemental Update (Toepfer)
- Development Plans and Science Priorities for 2019 and beyond (Chair: Marks)
- Introduction: Development Plans and Science Priorities for 2019 (Marks)
- HAFS developments out-brief from Day 1 workshop (Gopal)
- Physics priorities next 1-3 years (Zhu)
- Data Assimilation advancements (Sippel/Winterbottom)
- Open Discussion on 2019 Priorities
- Storm Surge Session (Chair: Fritz)
- Socio-economic session (Chair: Schauer)
- Socio-economic WG status (Sprague-Hilderbrand)
- Accelerate effective risk communication of warnings (Eosco)
- Plans for modernizing TC product suite (Sprague-Hilderbrand)
- Status of Tropical Program (Schauer)
Gopal (sundararaman.g.gopalakrishnan@noaa.gov) HFIP Co-Development Manager
Fred Toepfer (frederick.toepfer@noaa.gov) HFIP Program Manager
Frank Marks (frank.marks@noaa.gov) HFIP Science Manager
Sheema Lett (nysheema.lett@noaa.gov) HFIP Office Logistics Coordinator
Liz Hoswell (liz@ucar.edu) HFIP Meeting Coordinator
Paul Kucera (pkucera@ucar.edu) HFIP Website Coordinator