HFIP Annual Review Meeting | November 2019
- Presentations
- About
Day one (Monday, November 4 Afternoon):
- Programmatic updates and Operational Modeling Session (Chair: Frank Marks)
- Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations (Chair: Ed Rappaport)
- 2019 Year in Review: Joint Typhoon Warning Center TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities (Belson)
- Current forecast capabilities - NHC Verification (Cangialosi)
- NHC's analysis and forecasting challenges (Brennan/Blake)
- Operational applications including ensemble products (Franklin/DeMaria)
- Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team Update (Zelinsky)
- Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans (DeMaria)
- Operational storm surge Modeling (Alaka/Penny)
- Status of socio-economic projects (Sprague-Hilderband)
Day two (Tuesday, November 5):
- Establishing the Programmatic Metric(s) for Rapid Intensification (RI)(Moderator: Gopal)
- Background and Introduce proposed metrics (DeMaria/Franklin)
- Open Discussion: Reaching consensus on metric(s) sampling
- Expert Panel: Modeling implications
- Panelist: Frank Marks, Vijay Tallapragada, Ryan Torn, Jim Doyle
- Updates on Modeling plans, computing and Supplemental (Chair: Gopal)
- Global Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond (Tallapragada)
- Regional Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond (Mehra)
- RDHPCS Computing (Tallapragada)
- Hurricane Supplemental 2019 Update (Koch)
- Efforts to build Next Generation Hurricane Model (Chair: Tallapragada)
- Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.A (Liu/J. Dong)
- Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.B (Hazelton/Z. Zhang)
- Results from FV3SAR testing (Alexander)
- Progress in Grid and Nesting development (X. Zhang and Harris)
- Physics Priorities (C. Zhang/Wang)
- DA Advancements and Use of observations (Sippel)
- Hurricane Field Program updates and Use of observations (Zawislak)
- CROW Workflow (Kalina)
- CIME Workflow and repository (Dunlap/Turuncoglu)
- Coupling Strategies (Mehra)
- Special session on operational model problems in 2019, causes, potential solutions (Tallapragada)
- Overview of Operational and Modeling challenges with major storms from the Centers
- NHC (Brennan)
- JTWC (Belson)
- NCEP, ECMWF, UK Met, Navy (Tallapragada)
- HRWRB (Alaka)
- HRD (Hazelton/Alaka)
- Overview of Operational and Modeling challenges with major storms from the Centers
Day three (Wednesday, November 6 Morning):
- HFIP Supported External Research Reports (Chair: Koch)
- Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products (Schumacher/Brammer)
- New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification (Emanuel/Vigh)
- Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction (Zhu)
- Evaluating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System (Torn)
- Enabling Cloud Condensate Cycling for All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in HWRF (T-C Wu)
- Display and Diagnostics (Kucera/Burek)
- DTC Updates (Newman)
- Results of Real-time reservation Experiments (Chair: Mehra) (other than HAFS)
- Basin Scale HWRF-B (Alaka/Thomas)
- HWRF Ensemble (Z. Zhang)
- HMON ensemble (Wang)
- HWRF with No Vortex Initialization (Kalina)
- Analog Ensemble (Rozoff/Lewis)
- Summary and Concluding Remarks (Marks)
Day three (Wednesday Nov 6, 2019 Afternoon - INVITE ONLY)
- HAFS Developer's meeting - Next steps for HAFS
- Charge for this session (Mehra/Gopal)
- For each session - few slides on high-level milestones, progress, and plans.
- For each session - few slides on high-level milestones, progress, and plans.
- Configuration Strategy (Mehra/Gopal)
- Code repository management and Test plan Strategies (Alexander/Marchok)
- Code repository and support
- Develop HAFS evaluation diagnostics (storm tracker on native grid and tracker for products)
- Real-time/retrospective testing at various stages
- Nesting Strategy and Timeline (X. Zhang/Harris)
- Develop pre-processing tools supporting multi-level nesting
- Schedule for developing algorithms for telescopic nests in FV3
- Code next moving algorithm crossing the faces of the cubed sphere edges
- Modify FMS code to implement the crossing edge algorithm - challenges / timelines
- Physics Strategy (Tallapragada)
- HWRF Physics; other physics options
- Connection to CCPP
- Coupling to ocean (HYCOM and MOM6); Coupling to waves
- Initialization/DA Strategies (Marks/Winterbottom)
- Inner core DA developments
- DA using the JEDI framework
- Options for Vortex Initialization/Relocation
- Panel discussion on Outcomes
- Panelist: Frank Marks, Avichal Mehra, S. Gopal, Lucas Harris, Curtis Alexander
- Charge for this session (Mehra/Gopal)
OBJECTIVE
The primary objective of this meeting will be to discuss the key HFIP strategies as enlisted in the HFIP document including developing the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) which can provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. The current state of operational hurricane capabilities and challenge as well as the results and accomplishments from the 2019 hurricane season will also be discussed, allowing development of future plans to further improve hurricane forecast guidance in the upcoming years.