Date

17 - 18 September 2012

Location

NOAA Center for Climate and Weather Prediction (NCWCP)
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740

Topic

Improving Hurricane intensity forecast skill of dynamical regional models

Contacts

Young Kwon (Young.Kwon@noaa.gov) Chair
Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) Logistics

Agenda

Sept. 17 (Monday)

13:00–13:15 Welcome remarks: Robert Gall & William Lapenta

13:15–13:25 Young Kwon: Workshop introduction

13:25–13:40 Young Kwon: EMC's activity on physics development

13:40–14:00 Hua-lu Pan: New SAS convection scheme for high resolution models

14:00–14:15 Qingfu Liu: Results using the new SAS scheme in HWRF model

14:15-14:35 Dave Zelinsky: Estimating and Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Intensity
                   at the National Hurricane Center

14:35–14:55 Ligia Bernardet: HWRF testing at the DTC: quantification of
                    environmental biases and impact of cumulus parameterizations on
                    storm structure and intensity

14:55–15:10 Break

15:10–17:00 Discussion on moist physics and hurricane intensity
                    Chair: Hua-lu Pan; Co-Chair: Brad Ferrier

17:30           Reception (1st floor cafeteria)

Sept. 18 (Tuesday)

09:00–09:10 Opening of the second day

09:10–09:40 Joe Cione - A proposal to establish a dedicated Hurricane Model
                    Evaluation and Improvement Project
                    Eric Ulhorn: HWRF Surface Layer Evaluations

09:40–10:00 Isaac Ginis: Super-parameterization of roll vortices in the hurricane
                    boundary layer

10:00–10:20 James Doyle: Dynamical initialization of tropical cyclones and
                    predictability issues using COAMPS-TC

10:20–10:40 Mark DeMaria: Diagnostics for Evaluating Hurricane Model Forecast
                    Error Sources

10:40–11:00 Break

11:00–12:30 Discussion on role of air-sea interaction on hurricane intensity
                    Chair: Isaac Ginis; Co-Chair: JW Bao

12:30–13:30 Lunch

13:30–13:50 Jun Zhang: Evaluation and Improvement of HWRF PBL Physics using
                    Aircraft Observations

13:50–14:10 JW Bao & C. Fairall: Toward Generalization of Sub-Grid Turbulent
                    Mixing Parameterizations in TC Models Using Observations

14:10–14:40 Dave Nolan: Comparing Hurricane Structure in Research-Quality and
                    Forecast-Quality Simulations

14:40–15:00 Gopal: Shear related stratification

15:00–15:30 Break

15:30–17:30 Discussion and wrap-up:
                    Chair: Vijay Tallapragada and Co-Chair: Young Kwon

17:30           Adjourn

Summary and Action Items

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